USDA Food Price Outlook

How It Works

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) publishes the Food Price Outlook on the 25th of each month (or the prior business day), providing forecasts for food price inflation in the current and following calendar year. The report breaks down predictions by food category — cereals and bakery, meats, dairy, fruits, vegetables, and others — as well as the food-at-home versus food-away-from-home split. For 2024, the ERS forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 1.2% (a sharp deceleration from the 5.0% increase in 2023 and 11.4% spike in 2022). The forecasts use a combination of commodity futures prices, historical seasonal patterns, input cost trends, and econometric models. The ERS also publishes the Food Dollar Series, which tracks how each dollar of food spending is distributed across the supply chain — farming, processing, packaging, transportation, wholesale, retail, and food service. This data complements the Cheeseburger Index by providing context: when the index shows beef prices rising, the USDA outlook can explain whether the trend is expected to continue or reverse. The ERS forecasts have a mixed track record — they generally capture the direction of food price changes but have underestimated the magnitude of large swings.

Related Terms

• BLS Average Price Data — A BLS program that reports actual dollar prices (not index values) for approximately 70 food items at the national and regional level, published monthly — the primary data source for the Cheeseburger Index.
• Food Inflation — The rate at which food prices increase over time, measured as a percentage change in the food component of the CPI — historically averaging 2-3% annually but spiking to 11.4% in 2022.
• Commodity Prices — The wholesale prices of raw agricultural products like cattle, corn, wheat, and dairy on commodity exchanges — these upstream prices eventually flow through to retail food costs.