Why Groceries Cost More: Ingredient-by-Ingredient
Published March 25, 2026 · Bureau of Labor Statistics data
Grocery prices are roughly 25-30% higher than they were in early 2020, and the increases have not been uniform. Some ingredients have nearly doubled while others have barely moved. Using the same BLS data that powers The Cheeseburger Index, we break down exactly which ingredients have risen the most — and what is driving each increase.
The Scoreboard: How Much Each Ingredient Has Risen
| Ingredient | 2020 Price | 2026 Price | Change | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ground beef (per lb) | $4.17 | $4.86 | +16.5% | Cattle herd at 73-year low |
| American cheese (per lb) | $4.48 | $5.47 | +22.1% | Feed costs, labor shortages |
| White bread (per lb) | $1.58 | $2.07 | +31.0% | Wheat prices, energy costs |
| Iceberg lettuce (per head) | $1.22 | $1.64 | +34.4% | CA drought, labor costs |
| Tomatoes (per lb) | $1.92 | $2.28 | +18.8% | Weather volatility, transport |
Source: BLS CPI Average Price series. 2020 = annual average. 2026 = YTD average through available data.
The Surprise: Bread and Lettuce Led the Way
Most people assume meat drove grocery inflation. While beef did rise substantially, bread and lettuce actually saw larger percentage increases. White bread prices jumped 31% and lettuce surged 34% since 2020.
For bread, the story is global: the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted wheat markets in 2022, pushing wheat futures above $12/bushel (up from $5.50 in 2020). Energy costs for baking and transportation compounded the increase. Prices have moderated but remain well above pre-2020 levels.
For lettuce, the driver is water. California produces roughly 70% of U.S. lettuce, and the state has experienced persistent drought conditions. Water allocation cuts have reduced acreage, while farm labor costs continue to rise faster than the overall economy.
Ground Beef: The Biggest Absolute Impact
While beef's 16.5% increase is lower in percentage terms than bread or lettuce, it has the largest absolute impact on your grocery bill because beef starts at a much higher price point. A 16.5% increase on a $4.17/lb item adds $0.69 per pound. A 34% increase on $1.22 lettuce adds only $0.42.
The beef price story is fundamentally about supply. The U.S. cattle herd contracted sharply due to drought-driven liquidation in 2021-2023, reaching its lowest level since 1951. Even as conditions improved, rebuilding a cattle herd takes years — cows need to be held back for breeding rather than sent to slaughter. For full historical context, see our 10-year ground beef price history.
Cheese: Quietly Expensive
Cheese prices climbed 22% since 2020, making it the second-largest contributor to burger cost inflation in dollar terms. Dairy farms have faced a cost squeeze from multiple directions: higher feed costs, a tight labor market for farm workers, and rising energy costs for refrigerated transport. Strong export demand — particularly from Asia — has also kept domestic supply tight.
The Good News: Inflation Is Slowing
Food-at-home inflation peaked at 11.4% annually in mid-2022. By early 2026, the rate has fallen to roughly 1.8% — close to the historical norm. While prices are unlikely to return to 2020 levels, the rate of increase has normalized. The cost of a homemade burger is stabilizing.
Track each ingredient individually on our ingredient tracker, or see how the total burger cost has changed on the trends page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which grocery items have increased the most since 2020?
Among common burger ingredients, ground beef and cheese have seen the largest absolute price increases since 2020. Ground beef rose roughly 17% and cheese increased about 22%, driven by supply chain disruptions, feed costs, and processing capacity constraints.
Are grocery prices still going up in 2026?
Food price inflation has slowed significantly from its 2022 peak of 11.4% annual growth. In 2026, grocery prices are increasing at roughly 1-3% annually — closer to historical norms. However, prices have not returned to pre-2020 levels and are unlikely to do so.
Why are eggs and dairy more expensive?
Dairy prices (including cheese) have been affected by higher feed costs, labor shortages at processing plants, and strong export demand. Egg prices spiked due to avian influenza outbreaks that killed millions of laying hens in 2022-2023, and the flock has been slow to fully recover.
What is food inflation in 2026?
The BLS reports food-at-home inflation of approximately 1.8% year-over-year as of early 2026. This is well below the 2022 peak of 11.4% but still means cumulative prices are roughly 25-30% higher than in early 2020.
About This Data
All prices are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index Average Price series (public domain). Data is updated monthly. See our methodology for the full list of BLS series codes and calculation methods.